Following my cheery prediction of 29th May 2009, hard times in the public sector are indeed coming to pass. We've not yet re-entered recession, but I can't help but think it won't be long til we do.
Why do depressing stories make the best news? I've not been excited enough to blog about all the amazing things that I've been up to in the last year - the Blackheath camp, the great climate swoop, Green campaigning in Islington, and the Merthyr to Mayo ride etc.
Instead, what's finally motivated me to log in again is this horrible realisation:
Yesterday, without even noticing it creeping up on me, I found myself fighting for the opportunity to make a number of low paid staff redundant. I am horrified and it goes against all my principles - but it's true. In the current financial climate we need the savings in order to be able to continue to deliver another, more impactful, service. And someone else has another plan for these staff which would take them out of my remit and therefore mean that their budget was no longer available for me to poach for my other service.
I frequently justify the nastier bits of my job with the argument that since cuts need to be made it is better that I, with a social conscience, are shaping them, rather than some gung ho budget slasher... but following this I'm not so sure.
I need to take a bit more of my own advice and start thinking about whether there's a more equitable way to spread the impact of the inevitable cuts. For invitable they surely are.
Friday, 2 July 2010
Wednesday, 8 July 2009
Today's question
Where do people's ideological instincts come from?
It seems to me that people divide pretty clearly along various faultlines, for reasons which have little do do with rational argument. These divisions come from somewhere deeper, they are gut feelings.
One division which has recently been on my mind is between those who think that nothing can fundamentally change except through authority, and those who think that the involvement of authority prevents fundamental change. I am definitely of the former camp, but I know plenty of people in the latter. We could all give good examples supporting either position, but the evidence isn't enough, since in such a complex issue neither belief can be entirely true. Nevertheless, we persist in our beliefs and will always come down on our preferred side.
I am tempted to believe that these positions stem from our upbringing and early life experiences, and that is why they rarely change even over periods of years. But Adam raised an interesting point: is it possible to strongly believe something, to be deeply committed to it (e.g. the principle of equality) and yet to also believe that your commitment to it comes not from intellectual investigation (bringing one to the conclusion that the position is right or true), but is merely a side effect of one's upbringing?
It seems to me that people divide pretty clearly along various faultlines, for reasons which have little do do with rational argument. These divisions come from somewhere deeper, they are gut feelings.
One division which has recently been on my mind is between those who think that nothing can fundamentally change except through authority, and those who think that the involvement of authority prevents fundamental change. I am definitely of the former camp, but I know plenty of people in the latter. We could all give good examples supporting either position, but the evidence isn't enough, since in such a complex issue neither belief can be entirely true. Nevertheless, we persist in our beliefs and will always come down on our preferred side.
I am tempted to believe that these positions stem from our upbringing and early life experiences, and that is why they rarely change even over periods of years. But Adam raised an interesting point: is it possible to strongly believe something, to be deeply committed to it (e.g. the principle of equality) and yet to also believe that your commitment to it comes not from intellectual investigation (bringing one to the conclusion that the position is right or true), but is merely a side effect of one's upbringing?
Wednesday, 17 June 2009
Reasons to be cheerful I
After the last, rather depressing post, something more cheerful.
In the course of one lucky day last week two young boys (about 8 years old) separately and spontaneously held gates open for me whilst I was wrestling with my bike.
And then I came across this:
Amazing. Alongside the adverts for suspiciously cheap rooms and busty caribbean ladies in the window of a newsagents on the Holloway Road. I wonder if he has had any interest...
In the course of one lucky day last week two young boys (about 8 years old) separately and spontaneously held gates open for me whilst I was wrestling with my bike.
And then I came across this:
Amazing. Alongside the adverts for suspiciously cheap rooms and busty caribbean ladies in the window of a newsagents on the Holloway Road. I wonder if he has had any interest...
Friday, 29 May 2009
Mmm cheery - prediction of another recession
It is not news to people working in the public sector that our fortunes are dependent on spending decisions made in Whitehall. But it is beginning to dawn on us just how vulnerable we are going to be in 2011.
In 2007, the government published the long awaited (and delayed) Comprehensive Spending Review. This set out and guaranteed public spending across a range of services including health, education and local government. But the guarantee runs out in 2011.
The years since 1997 have been fat for the public sector, but this generous period is likely to come to a dramatic end in April 2011. A number of factors will come together to produce a significant cut in public spending:
- The end of the CSR07 guarantee
- The (likely) presence of a Conservative government
- The need by any government to cut public spending in light of the enormous public debt accumulated in trying to tackle the economic downturn
Approximately one fifth of the population is employed in the public sector; in Northern Ireland the figure is 30%. Given a UK workforce of 29m, this means 5.8 million people are employed by the public sector.
I don’t think cuts in public spending in the region of 10% are unrealistic, and assuming these translated into a 10% reduction in the public sector workforce, that would mean 580,000 people losing their jobs. I am not an economist, but I think a cut in spending / rise in unemployment on this scale could trigger a second recession, just as we are recovering from this one.
Thursday, 21 May 2009
Jan Palach + my mother
I mentioned my idea that environmental activists should throw themselves under horses to my mother on Tuesday, while we were eating pizza at my cousin's 12th birthday party.
She said she remembered very clearly watching the funeral of Jan Palach, the first non-Vietnamese man to burn himself alive in the 1960s. He was protesting the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia. She remembered watching the funeral procession, and the impact seeing it had made on her. Then she said she often dreamed of "doing that" - of self-immolation in protest. And I felt shaky and said something flippant and wished that it wasn't true.
She said she remembered very clearly watching the funeral of Jan Palach, the first non-Vietnamese man to burn himself alive in the 1960s. He was protesting the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia. She remembered watching the funeral procession, and the impact seeing it had made on her. Then she said she often dreamed of "doing that" - of self-immolation in protest. And I felt shaky and said something flippant and wished that it wasn't true.
Monday, 18 May 2009
Resurrection + Doris Lessing
I want to resurrect this blog, become a tourist again, but this time in my own life. Some new and potentially exciting things are happening - I have a new job and am trying to find some local but collective ways to make the world a better place - and I think writing is a good way to concentrate on them, make sure I pay them the attention they deserve.
My contrast for the day is between my life, my approach to life, and I think my generation's approach to life, and the way in which people tried to make social change happen in the long postwar period. I'm reading The good terrorist by Doris Lessing, which I would recommend highly. Her 1980s activists are filled with a level of anger, even of hatred of society, that I don't recognise in the people I know. They are inwardly focused, living off others whilst despising them. It's a depressing picture of what can happen to people when they become too caught up in a cause and lose their compassion for people who are different or not committed to the same ideals.
But it also reminds me that previous generations were more prepared to make sacrifices for their cause - indeed may not even have seen them as sacrifices. People of my parents' generation left university to live in squats or communes, devoted years of their life to Greenham Common or community projects in distant and thoroughly deprived places like Harlesden. They were not thinking about getting on the property ladder, they ate homemade soup and they hitch-hiked. Is this just a cliche? I don't think so.
It often occurs to me that the environmental movement needs people who are after more than being chased by police and being arrested as a badge of honour. It needs people prepared to throw themselves in front of horses, or go on hunger strike, or camp out for years at a time (and raise children in the campsite!). I'm not sure that it is these actions themselves which change the world, but I have a sense that they can send a powerful message of commitment.
But who will take up the challenge?
At this point I will confess to having both a mortgage and a pension.
My contrast for the day is between my life, my approach to life, and I think my generation's approach to life, and the way in which people tried to make social change happen in the long postwar period. I'm reading The good terrorist by Doris Lessing, which I would recommend highly. Her 1980s activists are filled with a level of anger, even of hatred of society, that I don't recognise in the people I know. They are inwardly focused, living off others whilst despising them. It's a depressing picture of what can happen to people when they become too caught up in a cause and lose their compassion for people who are different or not committed to the same ideals.
But it also reminds me that previous generations were more prepared to make sacrifices for their cause - indeed may not even have seen them as sacrifices. People of my parents' generation left university to live in squats or communes, devoted years of their life to Greenham Common or community projects in distant and thoroughly deprived places like Harlesden. They were not thinking about getting on the property ladder, they ate homemade soup and they hitch-hiked. Is this just a cliche? I don't think so.
It often occurs to me that the environmental movement needs people who are after more than being chased by police and being arrested as a badge of honour. It needs people prepared to throw themselves in front of horses, or go on hunger strike, or camp out for years at a time (and raise children in the campsite!). I'm not sure that it is these actions themselves which change the world, but I have a sense that they can send a powerful message of commitment.
But who will take up the challenge?
At this point I will confess to having both a mortgage and a pension.
Tuesday, 25 November 2008
Bon Voyage
And now, when I've finished my coffee (an American habit) and had some lunch, I am off. If anything interesting happens on the boat I'll put it on here when I get home. If not, this is goodbye!
Montreal VI
I am definitely a tourist in Montreal; much more so than I was in America. Not really because the things I have been doing are different. I think it is more that I was on the lookout for interesting anecdotes and sociological moments in America. And, I realise now, looking especially for those which would reinforce my preconceptions of the country.
In contrast, here I have walked past a fair number of people begging, and met a guy selling books of his jokes on the street, while essentially refusing to let them colour my picture of Canada as a civilised country with universal health care and few social problems.
Which is obviously only half true (the universal health care...). Even museum exhibits frequently refer to the city's divided nature (both in terms of income and of ethnicity - French and English, as well as various more recent immigrant groups) and various social problems. It has been a lesson to me in the power of unexamined prejudice to influence the way one sees things.
In contrast, here I have walked past a fair number of people begging, and met a guy selling books of his jokes on the street, while essentially refusing to let them colour my picture of Canada as a civilised country with universal health care and few social problems.
Which is obviously only half true (the universal health care...). Even museum exhibits frequently refer to the city's divided nature (both in terms of income and of ethnicity - French and English, as well as various more recent immigrant groups) and various social problems. It has been a lesson to me in the power of unexamined prejudice to influence the way one sees things.
Sunday, 23 November 2008
Montreal V
This is becoming seriously addictive. The previous post took me to 61% female... I wonder if it's the exclamation marks that give me away...
Montreal IV
Ha ha! Since adding cake pictures I have gone from being 75% male to being 51% female! Sorry for the confusion folks. Will endeavour to keep the cake stories coming.
New York re-cap
I present a brief selection of cakes from New York.
Seen only through the window, and unfortunately unsampled, lurid cakes in Spanish Harlem:
The selection in a strange, ultra-modernist cake bar (!) on the Lower East Side:
And, my favourite, the cakes Nico and I enjoyed at Podunk, the most wonderful, retro, homely teahouse I could imagine - thank you Sarah for the recommendation (mine already tucked into before I remembered to take a photo)!
Seen only through the window, and unfortunately unsampled, lurid cakes in Spanish Harlem:
The selection in a strange, ultra-modernist cake bar (!) on the Lower East Side:And, my favourite, the cakes Nico and I enjoyed at Podunk, the most wonderful, retro, homely teahouse I could imagine - thank you Sarah for the recommendation (mine already tucked into before I remembered to take a photo)!
Montreal II - Fran's true gender revealed!
Adam sent me this. According to GenderAnalyzer this blog is written by a 75% man...! I guess my secret's finally out.
Montreal
My first two impressions of Montreal are:
1. It's very French - the streets even smell like streets in France
2. It's very cold
On the train here we were stopped at the border
for two hours while border officials conducted a surprisingly thorough check of each passenger. Including removing three from my carriage alone and taking them away in a van while the rest of us continued on our way into Canada. When I walked through the train after the guards had gotten off, there were frosty patches in every vestibule:
And this morning, after a shower I went out to buy milk for my breakfast and after about two minutes found that my hair was all frozen! It hadn't even occurred to me that it could be cold enough for this to happen!
1. It's very French - the streets even smell like streets in France
2. It's very cold
On the train here we were stopped at the border
for two hours while border officials conducted a surprisingly thorough check of each passenger. Including removing three from my carriage alone and taking them away in a van while the rest of us continued on our way into Canada. When I walked through the train after the guards had gotten off, there were frosty patches in every vestibule:And this morning, after a shower I went out to buy milk for my breakfast and after about two minutes found that my hair was all frozen! It hadn't even occurred to me that it could be cold enough for this to happen!
New York VI
So, I discovered my inner journalist and battled selfconsciousness to take this picture of a man, just outside Grand Central station:
I guess he was deliberately referencing the men made famous in photos of the Depression. But with a modern twist - endorsements from his media appearances.
I also saw this sign in the East Village which made me giggle:
People are obviously aware of the worsening situation. But at the same time, luxury businesses seem to be continuing to thrive: the
photo's not great, but I saw this advert for a helicopter taxi to the airport on a taxi on Fifth Avenue.
I guess he was deliberately referencing the men made famous in photos of the Depression. But with a modern twist - endorsements from his media appearances.
I also saw this sign in the East Village which made me giggle:
People are obviously aware of the worsening situation. But at the same time, luxury businesses seem to be continuing to thrive: the
photo's not great, but I saw this advert for a helicopter taxi to the airport on a taxi on Fifth Avenue.
Thursday, 20 November 2008
New York V
Apologies - it's been a while, I know. But with the election over, and spending all my time on touristy activities in New York, it has been really hard to think of things worth writing about.
Some of the less touristy things I have been up to include raking up the leaves of a Quaker cemetery in Brooklyn, accompanying someone to a walk in clinic (she had tonsillitis), going to Whole Foods Market nearly every day, mainly to stock up on Dorset cereals, watching every Arsenal match and attempting to get into running (but have now hurt my knee and given up I'm afraid).
Mostly I don't feel like writing about New York because I reckon most of you know the city better than I do, so there doesn't seem much point. It's wonderful here, but occasionally there are things that get me down.
One in particular. Changing trains on the subway I saw a young man, about my age, begging. There are a lot of beggars on the subway (more than in London) but this guy was even more tragic than the rest of them. He held a sign, strung over his upper arms with string, and resting on his chest. It said, essentially, "I lost my arms in an accident and am trying to collect money in order to get prosthetic limbs".
The sheer barbarity of such a rich country being unwilling to collectively provide for this man to get new arms - to enable him to work! - was one thing that freaked me out. But the other was that I averted my eyes and jumped on my train. It was only once I had sat down that I realised my heart was racing. And that I should have stopped, spoken to him and given him some money. (If I were a half way committed journalist or blogger - I would also have taken a photo of his sign). Being so constantly assailed (and it's the same in London) I avoid even thinking about these things until it's too late to do anything. For this I am ashamed, and am trying to do differently until I leave.
Some of the less touristy things I have been up to include raking up the leaves of a Quaker cemetery in Brooklyn, accompanying someone to a walk in clinic (she had tonsillitis), going to Whole Foods Market nearly every day, mainly to stock up on Dorset cereals, watching every Arsenal match and attempting to get into running (but have now hurt my knee and given up I'm afraid).
Mostly I don't feel like writing about New York because I reckon most of you know the city better than I do, so there doesn't seem much point. It's wonderful here, but occasionally there are things that get me down.
One in particular. Changing trains on the subway I saw a young man, about my age, begging. There are a lot of beggars on the subway (more than in London) but this guy was even more tragic than the rest of them. He held a sign, strung over his upper arms with string, and resting on his chest. It said, essentially, "I lost my arms in an accident and am trying to collect money in order to get prosthetic limbs".
The sheer barbarity of such a rich country being unwilling to collectively provide for this man to get new arms - to enable him to work! - was one thing that freaked me out. But the other was that I averted my eyes and jumped on my train. It was only once I had sat down that I realised my heart was racing. And that I should have stopped, spoken to him and given him some money. (If I were a half way committed journalist or blogger - I would also have taken a photo of his sign). Being so constantly assailed (and it's the same in London) I avoid even thinking about these things until it's too late to do anything. For this I am ashamed, and am trying to do differently until I leave.
Wednesday, 12 November 2008
New York IV
Quote of the day:
"Show me where the open door is. Even if it's cracked up a little bit, maybe I'll plough right on through that and maybe prematurely plough through it, but don't let me miss an open door."
For those of you who need a translation, that's Sarah Palin saying she is still considering a run for the presidency in 2012.
"Show me where the open door is. Even if it's cracked up a little bit, maybe I'll plough right on through that and maybe prematurely plough through it, but don't let me miss an open door."
For those of you who need a translation, that's Sarah Palin saying she is still considering a run for the presidency in 2012.
Tuesday, 11 November 2008
New York III
I'm afraid I have been struggling to think of things to write about since the flurry of election-relating activity. It feels like the political equivalent of the breaks in national football tournaments for international matches: journalists still have to fill column inches, but no one really has anything to say.
I spoke too soon about right wing journalists going easy on Obama though - I think that must have lasted about two days, tops. They are going at him all guns blazing now. A couple of headlines to illustrate:
"The death of an American idea: under President Obama just under half the population will be on the dole"
"The worst case scenario: the economic consequences of hope and change" (dirty words that they are)
On the other hand, there seems to be surprisingly little serious internal critique of the Republican party, or proper consideration of why the party lost. In most cases Obama is portrayed as having won because of a combination of the economy, unfair outspending of McCain and the celebrity factor. Very few suggest that it was McCain who lost the election.
The premise seems to be that Obama is an aberration - had he not been around voters would have done the "right thing" (since all these authors assume voters are naturally conservative and will only vote Democrat under exceptional circumstances - which may have some truth in it). There is some predictable internal bitchiness, much aimed at Palin, but little in the way of useful analysis which could point the party in a better direction in order to win in 2012. Left leaning papers can hardly hide their glee at this, hoping the Republicans will lurch to the right and write themselves off for at least Obama's two potential terms.
One partial exception is this article from the National Review, which produces a long list of all the Republicans who have deviated from the path of small government and free market economics, and calls for their heads in order to return the party to its true Regan-ite roots. I'm not convinced this kind of "purification" would be enough to win against the hope and enthusiasm Obama has inspired. But it might well trigger the aforementioned lurch to the right.
I spoke too soon about right wing journalists going easy on Obama though - I think that must have lasted about two days, tops. They are going at him all guns blazing now. A couple of headlines to illustrate:
"The death of an American idea: under President Obama just under half the population will be on the dole"
"The worst case scenario: the economic consequences of hope and change" (dirty words that they are)
On the other hand, there seems to be surprisingly little serious internal critique of the Republican party, or proper consideration of why the party lost. In most cases Obama is portrayed as having won because of a combination of the economy, unfair outspending of McCain and the celebrity factor. Very few suggest that it was McCain who lost the election.
The premise seems to be that Obama is an aberration - had he not been around voters would have done the "right thing" (since all these authors assume voters are naturally conservative and will only vote Democrat under exceptional circumstances - which may have some truth in it). There is some predictable internal bitchiness, much aimed at Palin, but little in the way of useful analysis which could point the party in a better direction in order to win in 2012. Left leaning papers can hardly hide their glee at this, hoping the Republicans will lurch to the right and write themselves off for at least Obama's two potential terms.
One partial exception is this article from the National Review, which produces a long list of all the Republicans who have deviated from the path of small government and free market economics, and calls for their heads in order to return the party to its true Regan-ite roots. I'm not convinced this kind of "purification" would be enough to win against the hope and enthusiasm Obama has inspired. But it might well trigger the aforementioned lurch to the right.
Sunday, 9 November 2008
New York II
Apologies all, I was meant to travel south to Birmingham, Alabama today to tell you something about what people are thinking in areas which didn't vote overwhelmingly for Barack Obama. And I missed my train. And (of course) there's only one per day. I might yet make it, but not for now I'm afraid. Many apologies.
Friday, 7 November 2008
Philadelphia XII
Two things from the papers this morning that I thought might interest you.
The Obama campaign has published behind the scenes photos of the Obama family on election night - Flikr seems to be struggling to keep up with demand to see them, but if you refresh a few times they should appear!
And Salon has this very interesting article by Michael Lind tracing a pattern of governmental growth and backlash throughout American history. He divides this history into three "Republics", each lasting approximately 72 years, and each divided in half, with growth in the role of the state followed by determined contraction. He sees the fourth republic as having begun with Bush's re-election in 2004 (without much justification), but admits that Obama will be remembered as the first president of the new era.
The Obama campaign has published behind the scenes photos of the Obama family on election night - Flikr seems to be struggling to keep up with demand to see them, but if you refresh a few times they should appear!
And Salon has this very interesting article by Michael Lind tracing a pattern of governmental growth and backlash throughout American history. He divides this history into three "Republics", each lasting approximately 72 years, and each divided in half, with growth in the role of the state followed by determined contraction. He sees the fourth republic as having begun with Bush's re-election in 2004 (without much justification), but admits that Obama will be remembered as the first president of the new era.
Thursday, 6 November 2008
Philadelphia XI
A lot of people I spoke to before the election were concerned about the Bradley effect, or similar phenomena, which suggested that opinion polls were overestimating support for Obama, and that this overestimation was the result of voters having, but not recognising or being willing to admit, a racial bias against him.
In the end it looks like this wasn't the case at all. It is true that had white voters decided the election, McCain would have won. But Obama won 43% of the white vote, compared with 41% for Kerry in 2004, suggesting this is a bias against Democrats rather than against a black candidate.
Similarly, among those voters who said race did not influence their vote, Obama won a majority, but he won exactly the same majority among those who said race had influenced their vote (this was on CNN I think on election night).
I present this as a good news story to cheer those of you (like me) mourning the passing of Prop 8 in California (of all places), banning same sex marriage. Which is too depressing for me to write about.
In the end it looks like this wasn't the case at all. It is true that had white voters decided the election, McCain would have won. But Obama won 43% of the white vote, compared with 41% for Kerry in 2004, suggesting this is a bias against Democrats rather than against a black candidate.
Similarly, among those voters who said race did not influence their vote, Obama won a majority, but he won exactly the same majority among those who said race had influenced their vote (this was on CNN I think on election night).
I present this as a good news story to cheer those of you (like me) mourning the passing of Prop 8 in California (of all places), banning same sex marriage. Which is too depressing for me to write about.
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