Where do people's ideological instincts come from?
It seems to me that people divide pretty clearly along various faultlines, for reasons which have little do do with rational argument. These divisions come from somewhere deeper, they are gut feelings.
One division which has recently been on my mind is between those who think that nothing can fundamentally change except through authority, and those who think that the involvement of authority prevents fundamental change. I am definitely of the former camp, but I know plenty of people in the latter. We could all give good examples supporting either position, but the evidence isn't enough, since in such a complex issue neither belief can be entirely true. Nevertheless, we persist in our beliefs and will always come down on our preferred side.
I am tempted to believe that these positions stem from our upbringing and early life experiences, and that is why they rarely change even over periods of years. But Adam raised an interesting point: is it possible to strongly believe something, to be deeply committed to it (e.g. the principle of equality) and yet to also believe that your commitment to it comes not from intellectual investigation (bringing one to the conclusion that the position is right or true), but is merely a side effect of one's upbringing?
Showing posts with label politics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label politics. Show all posts
Wednesday, 8 July 2009
Wednesday, 12 November 2008
New York IV
Quote of the day:
"Show me where the open door is. Even if it's cracked up a little bit, maybe I'll plough right on through that and maybe prematurely plough through it, but don't let me miss an open door."
For those of you who need a translation, that's Sarah Palin saying she is still considering a run for the presidency in 2012.
"Show me where the open door is. Even if it's cracked up a little bit, maybe I'll plough right on through that and maybe prematurely plough through it, but don't let me miss an open door."
For those of you who need a translation, that's Sarah Palin saying she is still considering a run for the presidency in 2012.
Tuesday, 11 November 2008
New York III
I'm afraid I have been struggling to think of things to write about since the flurry of election-relating activity. It feels like the political equivalent of the breaks in national football tournaments for international matches: journalists still have to fill column inches, but no one really has anything to say.
I spoke too soon about right wing journalists going easy on Obama though - I think that must have lasted about two days, tops. They are going at him all guns blazing now. A couple of headlines to illustrate:
"The death of an American idea: under President Obama just under half the population will be on the dole"
"The worst case scenario: the economic consequences of hope and change" (dirty words that they are)
On the other hand, there seems to be surprisingly little serious internal critique of the Republican party, or proper consideration of why the party lost. In most cases Obama is portrayed as having won because of a combination of the economy, unfair outspending of McCain and the celebrity factor. Very few suggest that it was McCain who lost the election.
The premise seems to be that Obama is an aberration - had he not been around voters would have done the "right thing" (since all these authors assume voters are naturally conservative and will only vote Democrat under exceptional circumstances - which may have some truth in it). There is some predictable internal bitchiness, much aimed at Palin, but little in the way of useful analysis which could point the party in a better direction in order to win in 2012. Left leaning papers can hardly hide their glee at this, hoping the Republicans will lurch to the right and write themselves off for at least Obama's two potential terms.
One partial exception is this article from the National Review, which produces a long list of all the Republicans who have deviated from the path of small government and free market economics, and calls for their heads in order to return the party to its true Regan-ite roots. I'm not convinced this kind of "purification" would be enough to win against the hope and enthusiasm Obama has inspired. But it might well trigger the aforementioned lurch to the right.
I spoke too soon about right wing journalists going easy on Obama though - I think that must have lasted about two days, tops. They are going at him all guns blazing now. A couple of headlines to illustrate:
"The death of an American idea: under President Obama just under half the population will be on the dole"
"The worst case scenario: the economic consequences of hope and change" (dirty words that they are)
On the other hand, there seems to be surprisingly little serious internal critique of the Republican party, or proper consideration of why the party lost. In most cases Obama is portrayed as having won because of a combination of the economy, unfair outspending of McCain and the celebrity factor. Very few suggest that it was McCain who lost the election.
The premise seems to be that Obama is an aberration - had he not been around voters would have done the "right thing" (since all these authors assume voters are naturally conservative and will only vote Democrat under exceptional circumstances - which may have some truth in it). There is some predictable internal bitchiness, much aimed at Palin, but little in the way of useful analysis which could point the party in a better direction in order to win in 2012. Left leaning papers can hardly hide their glee at this, hoping the Republicans will lurch to the right and write themselves off for at least Obama's two potential terms.
One partial exception is this article from the National Review, which produces a long list of all the Republicans who have deviated from the path of small government and free market economics, and calls for their heads in order to return the party to its true Regan-ite roots. I'm not convinced this kind of "purification" would be enough to win against the hope and enthusiasm Obama has inspired. But it might well trigger the aforementioned lurch to the right.
Friday, 7 November 2008
Philadelphia XII
Two things from the papers this morning that I thought might interest you.
The Obama campaign has published behind the scenes photos of the Obama family on election night - Flikr seems to be struggling to keep up with demand to see them, but if you refresh a few times they should appear!
And Salon has this very interesting article by Michael Lind tracing a pattern of governmental growth and backlash throughout American history. He divides this history into three "Republics", each lasting approximately 72 years, and each divided in half, with growth in the role of the state followed by determined contraction. He sees the fourth republic as having begun with Bush's re-election in 2004 (without much justification), but admits that Obama will be remembered as the first president of the new era.
The Obama campaign has published behind the scenes photos of the Obama family on election night - Flikr seems to be struggling to keep up with demand to see them, but if you refresh a few times they should appear!
And Salon has this very interesting article by Michael Lind tracing a pattern of governmental growth and backlash throughout American history. He divides this history into three "Republics", each lasting approximately 72 years, and each divided in half, with growth in the role of the state followed by determined contraction. He sees the fourth republic as having begun with Bush's re-election in 2004 (without much justification), but admits that Obama will be remembered as the first president of the new era.
Thursday, 6 November 2008
Philadelphia XI
A lot of people I spoke to before the election were concerned about the Bradley effect, or similar phenomena, which suggested that opinion polls were overestimating support for Obama, and that this overestimation was the result of voters having, but not recognising or being willing to admit, a racial bias against him.
In the end it looks like this wasn't the case at all. It is true that had white voters decided the election, McCain would have won. But Obama won 43% of the white vote, compared with 41% for Kerry in 2004, suggesting this is a bias against Democrats rather than against a black candidate.
Similarly, among those voters who said race did not influence their vote, Obama won a majority, but he won exactly the same majority among those who said race had influenced their vote (this was on CNN I think on election night).
I present this as a good news story to cheer those of you (like me) mourning the passing of Prop 8 in California (of all places), banning same sex marriage. Which is too depressing for me to write about.
In the end it looks like this wasn't the case at all. It is true that had white voters decided the election, McCain would have won. But Obama won 43% of the white vote, compared with 41% for Kerry in 2004, suggesting this is a bias against Democrats rather than against a black candidate.
Similarly, among those voters who said race did not influence their vote, Obama won a majority, but he won exactly the same majority among those who said race had influenced their vote (this was on CNN I think on election night).
I present this as a good news story to cheer those of you (like me) mourning the passing of Prop 8 in California (of all places), banning same sex marriage. Which is too depressing for me to write about.
Philadelphia X
Even in the right wing press, many American commentators are going easy on Obama for the moment. No one wants to be seen as bitter, racist or anti-democratic by denouncing him just yet. Articles have titles like "Can we agree?" - looking for areas of common ground between Obama's coalition and the National Review's readership.
With one exception - our own dear Melanie Phillips. I can't quite bring myself to go through this whole article and tell you all the reasons why she is wrong and offensive. But for starters:
- she compares Obama's election to Blair's in 1997 which is, I think, to totally underestimate the strength of Obama's grassroots campaign, and the interest and enthusiasm he has generated among people who have never had any interest in politics before
- she claims Obama's election is, in effect, the signing of a national suicide note, since he is part of the progressive conspiracy that wants to destroy everything that is great about America (and in the same breath manages to call Blair a Marxist)
- she doesn't even pay lip service to the achievement of Obama, and America, in electing a black president after such a history of the discrimination against and disenfranchisement of African Americans. Instead, she condemns the "victim culture" which - shock horror - tries to redress historical injustices by promoting the rights of minority groups.
This woman has been top of my list of people I feel the need to shout at when they come on the radio for a long time. It is made even worse, somehow, by the fact that she went to school with my mum, and then to St Anne's. But I do think it's interesting that, while an American magazine is prepared to publish this article, its American writers do not yet seem as ready or prepared to write Obama off so definitively.
UPDATE: lovely Oliver Burkeman spotted she wrote something similarly innane in the Spectator (can you get any more grumpy than this?!):
"A historic moment indeed. The hyperbole for once is not exaggerated: this is a watershed election which changes the fate of the world. The fear however is that the world now becomes very much less safe for all of us as a result."
"Those of us who have looked on appalled during this most frightening of presidential elections – at the suspension of reason and its replacement by thuggery -- can only hope that the way this man governs will be very different from the profile provided by his influences, associations and record to date. It’s a faint hope – the enemies of America, freedom and the west will certainly be rejoicing today"
And finally, as Burkeman points out, she thinks 52% of the popular vote is a "minority power-grab".
Gah! Words finally fail me.
With one exception - our own dear Melanie Phillips. I can't quite bring myself to go through this whole article and tell you all the reasons why she is wrong and offensive. But for starters:
- she compares Obama's election to Blair's in 1997 which is, I think, to totally underestimate the strength of Obama's grassroots campaign, and the interest and enthusiasm he has generated among people who have never had any interest in politics before
- she claims Obama's election is, in effect, the signing of a national suicide note, since he is part of the progressive conspiracy that wants to destroy everything that is great about America (and in the same breath manages to call Blair a Marxist)
- she doesn't even pay lip service to the achievement of Obama, and America, in electing a black president after such a history of the discrimination against and disenfranchisement of African Americans. Instead, she condemns the "victim culture" which - shock horror - tries to redress historical injustices by promoting the rights of minority groups.
This woman has been top of my list of people I feel the need to shout at when they come on the radio for a long time. It is made even worse, somehow, by the fact that she went to school with my mum, and then to St Anne's. But I do think it's interesting that, while an American magazine is prepared to publish this article, its American writers do not yet seem as ready or prepared to write Obama off so definitively.
UPDATE: lovely Oliver Burkeman spotted she wrote something similarly innane in the Spectator (can you get any more grumpy than this?!):
"A historic moment indeed. The hyperbole for once is not exaggerated: this is a watershed election which changes the fate of the world. The fear however is that the world now becomes very much less safe for all of us as a result."
"Those of us who have looked on appalled during this most frightening of presidential elections – at the suspension of reason and its replacement by thuggery -- can only hope that the way this man governs will be very different from the profile provided by his influences, associations and record to date. It’s a faint hope – the enemies of America, freedom and the west will certainly be rejoicing today"
And finally, as Burkeman points out, she thinks 52% of the popular vote is a "minority power-grab".
Gah! Words finally fail me.
Wednesday, 5 November 2008
Philadelphia IX - what next?
Amidst all the euphoria, and all the talk of the dawning of a new American age, a pessimistic part of me is wondering whether this level of grass-roots interest and enthusiasm can be maintained. Whether it really will re-kindle the spirit of voluntarism and service which Americans feared had been lost. And whether it will be possible for an Obama presidency to be as different from the previous status quo as people seem to want it to be.
I am also fascinated to see how this man is transformed from a cult figure, an icon of hope, to the ultimate authority figure: the President of the United States. Will it still be cool to wear Obama t-shirts and badges in February 2009? Or 2010?
I am also fascinated to see how this man is transformed from a cult figure, an icon of hope, to the ultimate authority figure: the President of the United States. Will it still be cool to wear Obama t-shirts and badges in February 2009? Or 2010?
Philadelphia VIII - celebration
Even before the result was announced excitement filled
the city. As we drove through the centre of town there were about 20 people standing in the central reservation holding Obama signs while everyone honked and hooted as they drove past.
By 11:15, when the result was announced we could hear the honking and cheering from the centre of town, despite being about 10 blocks away, as well as the sound of the helicopters with spotlights which were hovering over the city.
We all got rather weepy listening to various talking heads on how this was a historic night, and even more weepy during Obama's (very sober, and not at all triumphalist) acceptance speech in Grant Park, Chicago.
At 1am as I was being driven home (all this driving! it makes me miss night buses at home) there were still people out, and the odd spontaneous street party going on, although things seemed to have calmed down a little. In Pittsburgh in the university area there was a massive parade at this time in the evening.
I'm looking forward to seeing the final results from Philadelphia and the 36th ward in particular. At present, Obama seems to have won 83% of the Philly vote but I've not seen any reports of levels of turnout. It seemed close to 100% of registered voters in my ward and I'd like to see if that is borne out by the numbers. I'll keep you informed if I ever find out.
the city. As we drove through the centre of town there were about 20 people standing in the central reservation holding Obama signs while everyone honked and hooted as they drove past.By 11:15, when the result was announced we could hear the honking and cheering from the centre of town, despite being about 10 blocks away, as well as the sound of the helicopters with spotlights which were hovering over the city.
We all got rather weepy listening to various talking heads on how this was a historic night, and even more weepy during Obama's (very sober, and not at all triumphalist) acceptance speech in Grant Park, Chicago.
At 1am as I was being driven home (all this driving! it makes me miss night buses at home) there were still people out, and the odd spontaneous street party going on, although things seemed to have calmed down a little. In Pittsburgh in the university area there was a massive parade at this time in the evening.
I'm looking forward to seeing the final results from Philadelphia and the 36th ward in particular. At present, Obama seems to have won 83% of the Philly vote but I've not seen any reports of levels of turnout. It seemed close to 100% of registered voters in my ward and I'd like to see if that is borne out by the numbers. I'll keep you informed if I ever find out.
Philadelphia VII - get out the vote!
Checking door knockers was pretty boring, but after we were r
edeployed to a more southern area office we were sent out to knock on doors and to remind people to vote.
I was lucky enough to be paired with a wonderful woman who lived in the area, knew her way around and clearly felt at ease there. And we were lucky enough to be working in areas which were nearly 100% black, so we never had to ask if someone was considering voting for Obama. In fact, quite a few people took
great pleasure in pretending, momentarily, to have voted for McCain.
The areas we were in were pretty poor, including a set of streets called "the box" which is notorious for having the most drug dealers anywhere in Philadelphia, and some others where my canvassing partner had seen a teenager firing a gun the previous week. Many houses were boarded up, and many others which looked uninhabitable contained families (in the lower photo of the street you can see a man opening the door of a house that looks completely boarded up).
We knocked on hundreds of doors in the course of the day, and struggled to find a single person who had not already
voted. Almost everyone said they had voted before work, at 7 or 8am. Some people had family members who had been unable to sleep, and had arrived at the polling station at 6 (they didn't open for voting until 7) just to make sure they would get a chance to vote. Someone who had arrived at 7 was the 160th person to vote at his station. Unlike in other parts of this city, and the country, there were hardly any queues after this initial rush, and no one reported being turned away or unable to vote for any reason.
But there was a festive atmosphere around the polling stations, even without queues. One had been set up in a small flower shop (see photo), another in a funeral home. Outside another, in a local park, a man had set up an amplifier and was playing covers by Dave Matthews Band, with a small Obama sign.
Other people around him were sitting on park benches or standing around, often with their children, holding Obama signs, while others gave out coffee and pretzels to voters as they arrived (the 36th ward office had a huge supply of pretzels for people who had to wait in line, but since no one in our area did they were distributed relatively freely).
By 6pm we were mainly just telling everyone to have a great night and enjoy the celebrations, as people started to come out into the streets, to greet everyone they saw with "have you voted?" and drive around honking. People also started to tell us to be careful and stay safe, and since everyone seemed to have voted we left happy (and exhausted from all that walking!).
edeployed to a more southern area office we were sent out to knock on doors and to remind people to vote.I was lucky enough to be paired with a wonderful woman who lived in the area, knew her way around and clearly felt at ease there. And we were lucky enough to be working in areas which were nearly 100% black, so we never had to ask if someone was considering voting for Obama. In fact, quite a few people took
great pleasure in pretending, momentarily, to have voted for McCain.The areas we were in were pretty poor, including a set of streets called "the box" which is notorious for having the most drug dealers anywhere in Philadelphia, and some others where my canvassing partner had seen a teenager firing a gun the previous week. Many houses were boarded up, and many others which looked uninhabitable contained families (in the lower photo of the street you can see a man opening the door of a house that looks completely boarded up).
We knocked on hundreds of doors in the course of the day, and struggled to find a single person who had not already
voted. Almost everyone said they had voted before work, at 7 or 8am. Some people had family members who had been unable to sleep, and had arrived at the polling station at 6 (they didn't open for voting until 7) just to make sure they would get a chance to vote. Someone who had arrived at 7 was the 160th person to vote at his station. Unlike in other parts of this city, and the country, there were hardly any queues after this initial rush, and no one reported being turned away or unable to vote for any reason.But there was a festive atmosphere around the polling stations, even without queues. One had been set up in a small flower shop (see photo), another in a funeral home. Outside another, in a local park, a man had set up an amplifier and was playing covers by Dave Matthews Band, with a small Obama sign.
Other people around him were sitting on park benches or standing around, often with their children, holding Obama signs, while others gave out coffee and pretzels to voters as they arrived (the 36th ward office had a huge supply of pretzels for people who had to wait in line, but since no one in our area did they were distributed relatively freely).By 6pm we were mainly just telling everyone to have a great night and enjoy the celebrations, as people started to come out into the streets, to greet everyone they saw with "have you voted?" and drive around honking. People also started to tell us to be careful and stay safe, and since everyone seemed to have voted we left happy (and exhausted from all that walking!).
Philadelphia VI - the office and the organisation
The shifts at the Obama office in Philadelphia's 36th ward were advertised as starting at 8am, 11am and 2pm on the website. I didn't make it for 8 I'm afraid, but I wandered down there after
breakfast and arrived at about 10:30.
There were seven members of staff, and about four volunteers waiting for their missions. By the time I had waited 10 minutes to be briefed and sent out, eight more volunteers had arrived.
You can see from the picture that we were a diverse bunch, though perhaps unrepresentatively white, as the 36th ward is largely black.
I have heard a lot of people talking about the military precision with which local Obama offices have been
run, despite the fact that they are largely staffed by young volunteers. This is not quite how it seemed to me. I was impressed with how they were able to find work for the many volunteers who just showed up wanting to be helpful, and redeployed us by chauffeur driven minibus to other areas when we were more needed there. Especially as they must have had very little idea of just how many people would show up on the day.
However, there seemed to be little in the way of a plan of action, and a fair amount of tussling between the various members of staff over how volunteers could be most useful. All this was done in earshot of said volunteers as we waited to be given our tasks, and I was quite uncomfortable to hear the dismissive way some of them talked about us.
I also found some them pretty patronising. One guy was briefing us to go out and check whether the correct door hangers had been left out in various polling districts: we had to make sure they showed the correct polling station as some had been left on the wrong streets. He showed us maps of each district, which were enclosed by a line in yellow highlighter, and explained at length that on the boundaries of each district, only the intern
al side of the street was part of the district, the other belonging to a different district. He then spent an awful lot of time unnecessarily talking about how to identify which was the north side of the road, saying "but in case you have any difficulty identifying which is the north side, I've got a useful heuristic for you to use" before confusing everyone with incorrect information about the numbering of streets in Philadelphia. It was all rather frustrating, that they didn't feel able to trust us to take a map and be able to read it.
Nevertheless, I don't want to be too negative! The atmosphere in the offices was upbeat, if only from our natural enthusiasm for the project, and it felt like we were all contributing, if only in a minute way. And there was a fantastic selection of food - doughnuts, apples, home-made ginger cake, salad, chocolate bars and pizza (though all at different times - we never knew what might be on offer when we got back to the office!).
breakfast and arrived at about 10:30.There were seven members of staff, and about four volunteers waiting for their missions. By the time I had waited 10 minutes to be briefed and sent out, eight more volunteers had arrived.
You can see from the picture that we were a diverse bunch, though perhaps unrepresentatively white, as the 36th ward is largely black.
I have heard a lot of people talking about the military precision with which local Obama offices have been
run, despite the fact that they are largely staffed by young volunteers. This is not quite how it seemed to me. I was impressed with how they were able to find work for the many volunteers who just showed up wanting to be helpful, and redeployed us by chauffeur driven minibus to other areas when we were more needed there. Especially as they must have had very little idea of just how many people would show up on the day.However, there seemed to be little in the way of a plan of action, and a fair amount of tussling between the various members of staff over how volunteers could be most useful. All this was done in earshot of said volunteers as we waited to be given our tasks, and I was quite uncomfortable to hear the dismissive way some of them talked about us.
I also found some them pretty patronising. One guy was briefing us to go out and check whether the correct door hangers had been left out in various polling districts: we had to make sure they showed the correct polling station as some had been left on the wrong streets. He showed us maps of each district, which were enclosed by a line in yellow highlighter, and explained at length that on the boundaries of each district, only the intern
al side of the street was part of the district, the other belonging to a different district. He then spent an awful lot of time unnecessarily talking about how to identify which was the north side of the road, saying "but in case you have any difficulty identifying which is the north side, I've got a useful heuristic for you to use" before confusing everyone with incorrect information about the numbering of streets in Philadelphia. It was all rather frustrating, that they didn't feel able to trust us to take a map and be able to read it.Nevertheless, I don't want to be too negative! The atmosphere in the offices was upbeat, if only from our natural enthusiasm for the project, and it felt like we were all contributing, if only in a minute way. And there was a fantastic selection of food - doughnuts, apples, home-made ginger cake, salad, chocolate bars and pizza (though all at different times - we never knew what might be on offer when we got back to the office!).
Philadelphia V - hold up!
Hang on! Did I really just post about electoral statistics instead of saying:
Obama won!
A black American won a landslide in the presidential election!
And the whole country seemed wild with excitement (though I wish in a small way I could also have seen the south and heard how things felt to voters there, which now appears the last bastion of a battered Republican party).
But I didn't want to get ahead of myself - I want to write about election day in chronological order!
Obama won!
A black American won a landslide in the presidential election!
And the whole country seemed wild with excitement (though I wish in a small way I could also have seen the south and heard how things felt to voters there, which now appears the last bastion of a battered Republican party).
But I didn't want to get ahead of myself - I want to write about election day in chronological order!
Philadelphia IV - the result vs the predictions
Well, my guesses look to have been a bit too conservative. In the end, Obama won Indiana and Florida, while North Carolina and Missouri are still (at time of writing) technically un-called because they are so close. However, the New York Times claims 100% of votes have been counted in both these states, and it looks like Obama narrowly won NC, while McCain narrowly won Missouri.
Monday, 3 November 2008
Philadelphia III - predictions
OK, my predictions for the ten swing states below are:
Arizona - Republican
Florida - Republican
Georgia - Republican
Indiana - Republican
Missouri - Republican
Montana - Republican
North Carolina - Democrat
North Dakota - Republican
Ohio - Democrat
Virginia - Democrat
More Republicans wins among these, but this doesn't mean defeat for Obama - in fact, over the course of the campaign the swing states have changed, so a few, like Pennsylvania and New Hampshire which used to be swing states are now considered safe for Obama, and others, like Colorado have swung even further, from being safe for the Republicans to safe for the Democrats.
I'd love to hear your thoughts and your predictions.
Arizona - Republican
Florida - Republican
Georgia - Republican
Indiana - Republican
Missouri - Republican
Montana - Republican
North Carolina - Democrat
North Dakota - Republican
Ohio - Democrat
Virginia - Democrat
More Republicans wins among these, but this doesn't mean defeat for Obama - in fact, over the course of the campaign the swing states have changed, so a few, like Pennsylvania and New Hampshire which used to be swing states are now considered safe for Obama, and others, like Colorado have swung even further, from being safe for the Republicans to safe for the Democrats.
I'd love to hear your thoughts and your predictions.
Philadelphia II - swing states
I've been planning to make some predictions about which way each of the swing states will go.
RCP has the following states as toss-ups at present: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio and Virginia (10 states).
The leaning or toss-up states according to FiveThirtyEight.com are: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, North Dakota and Ohio (6 states).
These are the ones to watch tomorrow. They all voted for Bush in 2004.
RCP has the following states as toss-ups at present: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio and Virginia (10 states).
The leaning or toss-up states according to FiveThirtyEight.com are: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, North Dakota and Ohio (6 states).
These are the ones to watch tomorrow. They all voted for Bush in 2004.
Philadelphia
Things are really buzzing here.
There were two people standing at a big crossroads with signs saying "Obama" and "Vote 2moro". Everyone was honking as they passed.
In the Whole Foods Market (a self consciously right on supermarket) a stranger approached us with "have you heard the news? Obama's grandmother has died". And we told the checkout girl. And everyone was shaking their heads.
Stalls all over the city are giving out posters and stickers - I managed to pick up a Pride Obama one, with a rainbow logo.
Probably one in five people in the street is wearing an Obama badge or t-shirt, or even carrying a large cardboard sign.
Obama is at his highest proportion of the popular vote according to Real Clear Politics: 51.6% (with the gap between him and McCain standing at 8.3%).
But everyone just wants it to be Wednesday: the anxiety is killing us.
There were two people standing at a big crossroads with signs saying "Obama" and "Vote 2moro". Everyone was honking as they passed.
In the Whole Foods Market (a self consciously right on supermarket) a stranger approached us with "have you heard the news? Obama's grandmother has died". And we told the checkout girl. And everyone was shaking their heads.
Stalls all over the city are giving out posters and stickers - I managed to pick up a Pride Obama one, with a rainbow logo.
Probably one in five people in the street is wearing an Obama badge or t-shirt, or even carrying a large cardboard sign.
Obama is at his highest proportion of the popular vote according to Real Clear Politics: 51.6% (with the gap between him and McCain standing at 8.3%).
But everyone just wants it to be Wednesday: the anxiety is killing us.
Sunday, 2 November 2008
New York
As I came into New York on the bus on Friday I was amazed to see so many children out in the streets, all fully dressed up for halloween, carrying pumpkin-shaped bags for candy, and often accompanied by parents in fancy dress. Shops more than homes seemed to be the best target, perhaps because so many people live in apartment blocks.
But halloween in New York doesn't end there - there is also a parade and a liberal amount of fancy dress partying by adults. The subway is packed and everyone is dressed up in some way.
The parade was a mixture of floats and marching music, similar to Notting Hill carnival, but at night and with more gratuitous nudity, and random people who have dressed up and exhibit themselves along the parade route, where thousands of people stand waiting to take pictures of the best costumes. My photos didn't come out at all well, but these from 2007 will give you some idea...
After the parade we went to a party in the west village at the house of Amy Winehouse's bassist. I wondered what we could learn about 2008 from the costumes on display. A lot were timeless (witches, football players, the sunmaid maiden etc), but others seemed more "dated". A lot of references to economic downturn - a downward arrow inscribed with "the economy"; a haggard old woman covered in dollar bills and gold coins. And a large number of Sarah Palins, wandering around winking and miming shooting large mammals.
She's been on the receiving end of quite a bit of mischief this week (as every week!) - Alex reminded me that Palin puts the "alas" into "Alaska". Carolyn sent me this flowchart: understanding how SP decides what to say to a difficult question. And Maggie sent me this article, showing that Brits are turning against her, including burning her effigy.
Only two days left and everyone is getting twitchy with nerves.
But halloween in New York doesn't end there - there is also a parade and a liberal amount of fancy dress partying by adults. The subway is packed and everyone is dressed up in some way.
The parade was a mixture of floats and marching music, similar to Notting Hill carnival, but at night and with more gratuitous nudity, and random people who have dressed up and exhibit themselves along the parade route, where thousands of people stand waiting to take pictures of the best costumes. My photos didn't come out at all well, but these from 2007 will give you some idea...
After the parade we went to a party in the west village at the house of Amy Winehouse's bassist. I wondered what we could learn about 2008 from the costumes on display. A lot were timeless (witches, football players, the sunmaid maiden etc), but others seemed more "dated". A lot of references to economic downturn - a downward arrow inscribed with "the economy"; a haggard old woman covered in dollar bills and gold coins. And a large number of Sarah Palins, wandering around winking and miming shooting large mammals.
She's been on the receiving end of quite a bit of mischief this week (as every week!) - Alex reminded me that Palin puts the "alas" into "Alaska". Carolyn sent me this flowchart: understanding how SP decides what to say to a difficult question. And Maggie sent me this article, showing that Brits are turning against her, including burning her effigy.
Only two days left and everyone is getting twitchy with nerves.
Friday, 31 October 2008
Boston VI
I've not seen anyone writing about it, but the last few days have seen a noticable narrowing of the gap between Obama and McCain in terms of the percentage of the popular vote they can expect to win.
Real Clear Politics, which takes a weighted average of a number of different polls, shows that between 25th October and the 30th, Obama's lead fell from 8% to 5.9%. This doesn't seem to have affected his lead in terms of electoral college votes (where Obama is currently on 311 to McCain's 142 and 85 "toss ups"), but it still makes me nervous. It is easy to imagine people becoming complacent, and not turning out to vote because they think it is in the bag. I also wonder if the traditional English support for the underdog (I'm thinking of John Major and Spitting Image in 1992) could apply here too, to devastating effect...
Real Clear Politics, which takes a weighted average of a number of different polls, shows that between 25th October and the 30th, Obama's lead fell from 8% to 5.9%. This doesn't seem to have affected his lead in terms of electoral college votes (where Obama is currently on 311 to McCain's 142 and 85 "toss ups"), but it still makes me nervous. It is easy to imagine people becoming complacent, and not turning out to vote because they think it is in the bag. I also wonder if the traditional English support for the underdog (I'm thinking of John Major and Spitting Image in 1992) could apply here too, to devastating effect...
Boston V
Drummond very kindly sent me Simon Schama's new book which I am really enjoying. It is full of stories and characters that I had never heard before, and which I expect many Americans are also unfamiliar with (they are unlucky that it won't be published here until June 2009 I think).
One fact struck me particularly: in Mississippi in 1963 (i.e. a full century after political rights were supposedly granted to all) only 7,000 African Americans, of a population of 450,000 were registered to vote. This disenfranchisement was brought about by a combination of intimidation and obstruction (e.g. making black Americans take difficult tests to prove they were qualified to vote which white Americans were never required to take).
It has only been 45 years since the civil rights movement took on the establishment to end this kind of discrimination. It makes it all the more impressive that the country now not only has a black man running to be President, but that he has a great chance (I would need nerves of steel to put it more strongly!) of being elected.
One fact struck me particularly: in Mississippi in 1963 (i.e. a full century after political rights were supposedly granted to all) only 7,000 African Americans, of a population of 450,000 were registered to vote. This disenfranchisement was brought about by a combination of intimidation and obstruction (e.g. making black Americans take difficult tests to prove they were qualified to vote which white Americans were never required to take).
It has only been 45 years since the civil rights movement took on the establishment to end this kind of discrimination. It makes it all the more impressive that the country now not only has a black man running to be President, but that he has a great chance (I would need nerves of steel to put it more strongly!) of being elected.
Boston IV
I love this video of high school students singing about the election - it's a shame you can't hear all the words. I keep saying this, but it is testament to the interest this election has generated that a class of 15 year olds (?) can get this excited even though they aren't able to vote.
Monday, 27 October 2008
Boston II
Re: my post about Colin Powell, Rush Limbaugh is not convinced.
He thinks it is just a simple matter of race: he was struggling to find "all the inexperienced, very liberal white candidates that he [Powell] has endorsed". I have to admit, when I heard him on the radio he scared me.
He thinks it is just a simple matter of race: he was struggling to find "all the inexperienced, very liberal white candidates that he [Powell] has endorsed". I have to admit, when I heard him on the radio he scared me.
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