Bon Voyage

And now, when I've finished my coffee (an American habit) and had some lunch, I am off. If anything interesting happens on the boat I'll put it on here when I get home. If not, this is goodbye!

Montreal VI

I am definitely a tourist in Montreal; much more so than I was in America. Not really because the things I have been doing are different. I think it is more that I was on the lookout for interesting anecdotes and sociological moments in America. And, I realise now, looking especially for those which would reinforce my preconceptions of the country.

In contrast, here I have walked past a fair number of people begging, and met a guy selling books of his jokes on the street, while essentially refusing to let them colour my picture of Canada as a civilised country with universal health care and few social problems.

Which is obviously only half true (the universal health care...). Even museum exhibits frequently refer to the city's divided nature (both in terms of income and of ethnicity - French and English, as well as various more recent immigrant groups) and various social problems. It has been a lesson to me in the power of unexamined prejudice to influence the way one sees things.

Montreal V

This is becoming seriously addictive. The previous post took me to 61% female... I wonder if it's the exclamation marks that give me away...

Montreal IV

Ha ha! Since adding cake pictures I have gone from being 75% male to being 51% female! Sorry for the confusion folks. Will endeavour to keep the cake stories coming.

New York re-cap

I present a brief selection of cakes from New York.

Seen only through the window, and unfortunately unsampled, lurid cakes in Spanish Harlem:The selection in a strange, ultra-modernist cake bar (!) on the Lower East Side:And, my favourite, the cakes Nico and I enjoyed at Podunk, the most wonderful, retro, homely teahouse I could imagine - thank you Sarah for the recommendation (mine already tucked into before I remembered to take a photo)!

Montreal II - Fran's true gender revealed!

Adam sent me this. According to GenderAnalyzer this blog is written by a 75% man...! I guess my secret's finally out.

Montreal

My first two impressions of Montreal are:

1. It's very French - the streets even smell like streets in France
2. It's very cold

On the train here we were stopped at the border for two hours while border officials conducted a surprisingly thorough check of each passenger. Including removing three from my carriage alone and taking them away in a van while the rest of us continued on our way into Canada. When I walked through the train after the guards had gotten off, there were frosty patches in every vestibule:

And this morning, after a shower I went out to buy milk for my breakfast and after about two minutes found that my hair was all frozen! It hadn't even occurred to me that it could be cold enough for this to happen!

New York VI

So, I discovered my inner journalist and battled selfconsciousness to take this picture of a man, just outside Grand Central station:


I guess he was deliberately referencing the men made famous in photos of the Depression. But with a modern twist - endorsements from his media appearances.

I also saw this sign in the East Village which made me giggle:

People are obviously aware of the worsening situation. But at the same time, luxury businesses seem to be continuing to thrive: the photo's not great, but I saw this advert for a helicopter taxi to the airport on a taxi on Fifth Avenue.

New York V

Apologies - it's been a while, I know. But with the election over, and spending all my time on touristy activities in New York, it has been really hard to think of things worth writing about.

Some of the less touristy things I have been up to include raking up the leaves of a Quaker cemetery in Brooklyn, accompanying someone to a walk in clinic (she had tonsillitis), going to Whole Foods Market nearly every day, mainly to stock up on Dorset cereals, watching every Arsenal match and attempting to get into running (but have now hurt my knee and given up I'm afraid).

Mostly I don't feel like writing about New York because I reckon most of you know the city better than I do, so there doesn't seem much point. It's wonderful here, but occasionally there are things that get me down.

One in particular. Changing trains on the subway I saw a young man, about my age, begging. There are a lot of beggars on the subway (more than in London) but this guy was even more tragic than the rest of them. He held a sign, strung over his upper arms with string, and resting on his chest. It said, essentially, "I lost my arms in an accident and am trying to collect money in order to get prosthetic limbs".

The sheer barbarity of such a rich country being unwilling to collectively provide for this man to get new arms - to enable him to work! - was one thing that freaked me out. But the other was that I averted my eyes and jumped on my train. It was only once I had sat down that I realised my heart was racing. And that I should have stopped, spoken to him and given him some money. (If I were a half way committed journalist or blogger - I would also have taken a photo of his sign). Being so constantly assailed (and it's the same in London) I avoid even thinking about these things until it's too late to do anything. For this I am ashamed, and am trying to do differently until I leave.

New York IV

Quote of the day:

"Show me where the open door is. Even if it's cracked up a little bit, maybe I'll plough right on through that and maybe prematurely plough through it, but don't let me miss an open door."

For those of you who need a translation, that's Sarah Palin saying she is still considering a run for the presidency in 2012.

New York III

I'm afraid I have been struggling to think of things to write about since the flurry of election-relating activity. It feels like the political equivalent of the breaks in national football tournaments for international matches: journalists still have to fill column inches, but no one really has anything to say.

I spoke too soon about right wing journalists going easy on Obama though - I think that must have lasted about two days, tops. They are going at him all guns blazing now. A couple of headlines to illustrate:

"The death of an American idea: under President Obama just under half the population will be on the dole"

"The worst case scenario: the economic consequences of hope and change" (dirty words that they are)

On the other hand, there seems to be surprisingly little serious internal critique of the Republican party, or proper consideration of why the party lost. In most cases Obama is portrayed as having won because of a combination of the economy, unfair outspending of McCain and the celebrity factor. Very few suggest that it was McCain who lost the election.

The premise seems to be that Obama is an aberration - had he not been around voters would have done the "right thing" (since all these authors assume voters are naturally conservative and will only vote Democrat under exceptional circumstances - which may have some truth in it). There is some predictable internal bitchiness, much aimed at Palin, but little in the way of useful analysis which could point the party in a better direction in order to win in 2012. Left leaning papers can hardly hide their glee at this, hoping the Republicans will lurch to the right and write themselves off for at least Obama's two potential terms.

One partial exception is this article from the National Review, which produces a long list of all the Republicans who have deviated from the path of small government and free market economics, and calls for their heads in order to return the party to its true Regan-ite roots. I'm not convinced this kind of "purification" would be enough to win against the hope and enthusiasm Obama has inspired. But it might well trigger the aforementioned lurch to the right.

New York II

Apologies all, I was meant to travel south to Birmingham, Alabama today to tell you something about what people are thinking in areas which didn't vote overwhelmingly for Barack Obama. And I missed my train. And (of course) there's only one per day. I might yet make it, but not for now I'm afraid. Many apologies.

Philadelphia XII

Two things from the papers this morning that I thought might interest you.

The Obama campaign has published behind the scenes photos of the Obama family on election night - Flikr seems to be struggling to keep up with demand to see them, but if you refresh a few times they should appear!

And Salon has this very interesting article by Michael Lind tracing a pattern of governmental growth and backlash throughout American history. He divides this history into three "Republics", each lasting approximately 72 years, and each divided in half, with growth in the role of the state followed by determined contraction. He sees the fourth republic as having begun with Bush's re-election in 2004 (without much justification), but admits that Obama will be remembered as the first president of the new era.

Philadelphia XI

A lot of people I spoke to before the election were concerned about the Bradley effect, or similar phenomena, which suggested that opinion polls were overestimating support for Obama, and that this overestimation was the result of voters having, but not recognising or being willing to admit, a racial bias against him.

In the end it looks like this wasn't the case at all. It is true that had white voters decided the election, McCain would have won. But Obama won 43% of the white vote, compared with 41% for Kerry in 2004, suggesting this is a bias against Democrats rather than against a black candidate.

Similarly, among those voters who said race did not influence their vote, Obama won a majority, but he won exactly the same majority among those who said race had influenced their vote (this was on CNN I think on election night).

I present this as a good news story to cheer those of you (like me) mourning the passing of Prop 8 in California (of all places), banning same sex marriage. Which is too depressing for me to write about.

Philadelphia X

Even in the right wing press, many American commentators are going easy on Obama for the moment. No one wants to be seen as bitter, racist or anti-democratic by denouncing him just yet. Articles have titles like "Can we agree?" - looking for areas of common ground between Obama's coalition and the National Review's readership.

With one exception - our own dear Melanie Phillips. I can't quite bring myself to go through this whole article and tell you all the reasons why she is wrong and offensive. But for starters:

- she compares Obama's election to Blair's in 1997 which is, I think, to totally underestimate the strength of Obama's grassroots campaign, and the interest and enthusiasm he has generated among people who have never had any interest in politics before

- she claims Obama's election is, in effect, the signing of a national suicide note, since he is part of the progressive conspiracy that wants to destroy everything that is great about America (and in the same breath manages to call Blair a Marxist)

- she doesn't even pay lip service to the achievement of Obama, and America, in electing a black president after such a history of the discrimination against and disenfranchisement of African Americans. Instead, she condemns the "victim culture" which - shock horror - tries to redress historical injustices by promoting the rights of minority groups.

This woman has been top of my list of people I feel the need to shout at when they come on the radio for a long time. It is made even worse, somehow, by the fact that she went to school with my mum, and then to St Anne's. But I do think it's interesting that, while an American magazine is prepared to publish this article, its American writers do not yet seem as ready or prepared to write Obama off so definitively.

UPDATE: lovely Oliver Burkeman spotted she wrote something similarly innane in the Spectator (can you get any more grumpy than this?!):

"A historic moment indeed. The hyperbole for once is not exaggerated: this is a watershed election which changes the fate of the world. The fear however is that the world now becomes very much less safe for all of us as a result."

"Those of us who have looked on appalled during this most frightening of presidential elections – at the suspension of reason and its replacement by thuggery -- can only hope that the way this man governs will be very different from the profile provided by his influences, associations and record to date. It’s a faint hope – the enemies of America, freedom and the west will certainly be rejoicing today"

And finally, as Burkeman points out, she thinks 52% of the popular vote is a "minority power-grab".

Gah! Words finally fail me.

Philadelphia IX - what next?

Amidst all the euphoria, and all the talk of the dawning of a new American age, a pessimistic part of me is wondering whether this level of grass-roots interest and enthusiasm can be maintained. Whether it really will re-kindle the spirit of voluntarism and service which Americans feared had been lost. And whether it will be possible for an Obama presidency to be as different from the previous status quo as people seem to want it to be.

I am also fascinated to see how this man is transformed from a cult figure, an icon of hope, to the ultimate authority figure: the President of the United States. Will it still be cool to wear Obama t-shirts and badges in February 2009? Or 2010?

Philadelphia VIII - celebration

Even before the result was announced excitement filled the city. As we drove through the centre of town there were about 20 people standing in the central reservation holding Obama signs while everyone honked and hooted as they drove past.

By 11:15, when the result was announced we could hear the honking and cheering from the centre of town, despite being about 10 blocks away, as well as the sound of the helicopters with spotlights which were hovering over the city.

We all got rather weepy listening to various talking heads on how this was a historic night, and even more weepy during Obama's (very sober, and not at all triumphalist) acceptance speech in Grant Park, Chicago.

At 1am as I was being driven home (all this driving! it makes me miss night buses at home) there were still people out, and the odd spontaneous street party going on, although things seemed to have calmed down a little. In Pittsburgh in the university area there was a massive parade at this time in the evening.

I'm looking forward to seeing the final results from Philadelphia and the 36th ward in particular. At present, Obama seems to have won 83% of the Philly vote but I've not seen any reports of levels of turnout. It seemed close to 100% of registered voters in my ward and I'd like to see if that is borne out by the numbers. I'll keep you informed if I ever find out.

Philadelphia VII - get out the vote!

Checking door knockers was pretty boring, but after we were redeployed to a more southern area office we were sent out to knock on doors and to remind people to vote.

I was lucky enough to be paired with a wonderful woman who lived in the area, knew her way around and clearly felt at ease there. And we were lucky enough to be working in areas which were nearly 100% black, so we never had to ask if someone was considering voting for Obama. In fact, quite a few people took great pleasure in pretending, momentarily, to have voted for McCain.

The areas we were in were pretty poor, including a set of streets called "the box" which is notorious for having the most drug dealers anywhere in Philadelphia, and some others where my canvassing partner had seen a teenager firing a gun the previous week. Many houses were boarded up, and many others which looked uninhabitable contained families (in the lower photo of the street you can see a man opening the door of a house that looks completely boarded up).

We knocked on hundreds of doors in the course of the day, and struggled to find a single person who had not already voted. Almost everyone said they had voted before work, at 7 or 8am. Some people had family members who had been unable to sleep, and had arrived at the polling station at 6 (they didn't open for voting until 7) just to make sure they would get a chance to vote. Someone who had arrived at 7 was the 160th person to vote at his station. Unlike in other parts of this city, and the country, there were hardly any queues after this initial rush, and no one reported being turned away or unable to vote for any reason.

But there was a festive atmosphere around the polling stations, even without queues. One had been set up in a small flower shop (see photo), another in a funeral home. Outside another, in a local park, a man had set up an amplifier and was playing covers by Dave Matthews Band, with a small Obama sign. Other people around him were sitting on park benches or standing around, often with their children, holding Obama signs, while others gave out coffee and pretzels to voters as they arrived (the 36th ward office had a huge supply of pretzels for people who had to wait in line, but since no one in our area did they were distributed relatively freely).

By 6pm we were mainly just telling everyone to have a great night and enjoy the celebrations, as people started to come out into the streets, to greet everyone they saw with "have you voted?" and drive around honking. People also started to tell us to be careful and stay safe, and since everyone seemed to have voted we left happy (and exhausted from all that walking!).

Philadelphia VI - the office and the organisation

The shifts at the Obama office in Philadelphia's 36th ward were advertised as starting at 8am, 11am and 2pm on the website. I didn't make it for 8 I'm afraid, but I wandered down there after breakfast and arrived at about 10:30.

There were seven members of staff, and about four volunteers waiting for their missions. By the time I had waited 10 minutes to be briefed and sent out, eight more volunteers had arrived.

You can see from the picture that we were a diverse bunch, though perhaps unrepresentatively white, as the 36th ward is largely black.

I have heard a lot of people talking about the military precision with which local Obama offices have been run, despite the fact that they are largely staffed by young volunteers. This is not quite how it seemed to me. I was impressed with how they were able to find work for the many volunteers who just showed up wanting to be helpful, and redeployed us by chauffeur driven minibus to other areas when we were more needed there. Especially as they must have had very little idea of just how many people would show up on the day.

However, there seemed to be little in the way of a plan of action, and a fair amount of tussling between the various members of staff over how volunteers could be most useful. All this was done in earshot of said volunteers as we waited to be given our tasks, and I was quite uncomfortable to hear the dismissive way some of them talked about us.

I also found some them pretty patronising. One guy was briefing us to go out and check whether the correct door hangers had been left out in various polling districts: we had to make sure they showed the correct polling station as some had been left on the wrong streets. He showed us maps of each district, which were enclosed by a line in yellow highlighter, and explained at length that on the boundaries of each district, only the internal side of the street was part of the district, the other belonging to a different district. He then spent an awful lot of time unnecessarily talking about how to identify which was the north side of the road, saying "but in case you have any difficulty identifying which is the north side, I've got a useful heuristic for you to use" before confusing everyone with incorrect information about the numbering of streets in Philadelphia. It was all rather frustrating, that they didn't feel able to trust us to take a map and be able to read it.

Nevertheless, I don't want to be too negative! The atmosphere in the offices was upbeat, if only from our natural enthusiasm for the project, and it felt like we were all contributing, if only in a minute way. And there was a fantastic selection of food - doughnuts, apples, home-made ginger cake, salad, chocolate bars and pizza (though all at different times - we never knew what might be on offer when we got back to the office!).

Philadelphia V - hold up!

Hang on! Did I really just post about electoral statistics instead of saying:

Obama won!
A black American won a landslide in the presidential election!

And the whole country seemed wild with excitement (though I wish in a small way I could also have seen the south and heard how things felt to voters there, which now appears the last bastion of a battered Republican party).

But I didn't want to get ahead of myself - I want to write about election day in chronological order!

Philadelphia IV - the result vs the predictions

Well, my guesses look to have been a bit too conservative. In the end, Obama won Indiana and Florida, while North Carolina and Missouri are still (at time of writing) technically un-called because they are so close. However, the New York Times claims 100% of votes have been counted in both these states, and it looks like Obama narrowly won NC, while McCain narrowly won Missouri.

Philadelphia III - predictions

OK, my predictions for the ten swing states below are:

Arizona - Republican
Florida - Republican
Georgia - Republican
Indiana - Republican
Missouri - Republican
Montana - Republican
North Carolina - Democrat
North Dakota - Republican
Ohio - Democrat
Virginia - Democrat

More Republicans wins among these, but this doesn't mean defeat for Obama - in fact, over the course of the campaign the swing states have changed, so a few, like Pennsylvania and New Hampshire which used to be swing states are now considered safe for Obama, and others, like Colorado have swung even further, from being safe for the Republicans to safe for the Democrats.

I'd love to hear your thoughts and your predictions.

Philadelphia II - swing states

I've been planning to make some predictions about which way each of the swing states will go.

RCP has the following states as toss-ups at present: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio and Virginia (10 states).

The leaning or toss-up states according to FiveThirtyEight.com are: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, North Dakota and Ohio (6 states).

These are the ones to watch tomorrow. They all voted for Bush in 2004.

Philadelphia

Things are really buzzing here.

There were two people standing at a big crossroads with signs saying "Obama" and "Vote 2moro". Everyone was honking as they passed.

In the Whole Foods Market (a self consciously right on supermarket) a stranger approached us with "have you heard the news? Obama's grandmother has died". And we told the checkout girl. And everyone was shaking their heads.

Stalls all over the city are giving out posters and stickers - I managed to pick up a Pride Obama one, with a rainbow logo.

Probably one in five people in the street is wearing an Obama badge or t-shirt, or even carrying a large cardboard sign.

Obama is at his highest proportion of the popular vote according to Real Clear Politics: 51.6% (with the gap between him and McCain standing at 8.3%).

But everyone just wants it to be Wednesday: the anxiety is killing us.

New York

As I came into New York on the bus on Friday I was amazed to see so many children out in the streets, all fully dressed up for halloween, carrying pumpkin-shaped bags for candy, and often accompanied by parents in fancy dress. Shops more than homes seemed to be the best target, perhaps because so many people live in apartment blocks.

But halloween in New York doesn't end there - there is also a parade and a liberal amount of fancy dress partying by adults. The subway is packed and everyone is dressed up in some way.

The parade was a mixture of floats and marching music, similar to Notting Hill carnival, but at night and with more gratuitous nudity, and random people who have dressed up and exhibit themselves along the parade route, where thousands of people stand waiting to take pictures of the best costumes. My photos didn't come out at all well, but these from 2007 will give you some idea...

After the parade we went to a party in the west village at the house of Amy Winehouse's bassist. I wondered what we could learn about 2008 from the costumes on display. A lot were timeless (witches, football players, the sunmaid maiden etc), but others seemed more "dated". A lot of references to economic downturn - a downward arrow inscribed with "the economy"; a haggard old woman covered in dollar bills and gold coins. And a large number of Sarah Palins, wandering around winking and miming shooting large mammals.

She's been on the receiving end of quite a bit of mischief this week (as every week!) - Alex reminded me that Palin puts the "alas" into "Alaska". Carolyn sent me this flowchart: understanding how SP decides what to say to a difficult question. And Maggie sent me this article, showing that Brits are turning against her, including burning her effigy.

Only two days left and everyone is getting twitchy with nerves.