Philadelphia XI

A lot of people I spoke to before the election were concerned about the Bradley effect, or similar phenomena, which suggested that opinion polls were overestimating support for Obama, and that this overestimation was the result of voters having, but not recognising or being willing to admit, a racial bias against him.

In the end it looks like this wasn't the case at all. It is true that had white voters decided the election, McCain would have won. But Obama won 43% of the white vote, compared with 41% for Kerry in 2004, suggesting this is a bias against Democrats rather than against a black candidate.

Similarly, among those voters who said race did not influence their vote, Obama won a majority, but he won exactly the same majority among those who said race had influenced their vote (this was on CNN I think on election night).

I present this as a good news story to cheer those of you (like me) mourning the passing of Prop 8 in California (of all places), banning same sex marriage. Which is too depressing for me to write about.