I've not seen anyone writing about it, but the last few days have seen a noticable narrowing of the gap between Obama and McCain in terms of the percentage of the popular vote they can expect to win.
Real Clear Politics, which takes a weighted average of a number of different polls, shows that between 25th October and the 30th, Obama's lead fell from 8% to 5.9%. This doesn't seem to have affected his lead in terms of electoral college votes (where Obama is currently on 311 to McCain's 142 and 85 "toss ups"), but it still makes me nervous. It is easy to imagine people becoming complacent, and not turning out to vote because they think it is in the bag. I also wonder if the traditional English support for the underdog (I'm thinking of John Major and Spitting Image in 1992) could apply here too, to devastating effect...
2 comments:
Did the people at Apple tellyou the story about the ad campaign featuring PC and Mac which ran very successfully in many markets? In 2006 they were very surprised and bemused that in Britain the concept (featuring Mitchell & Webb) sold PCs rather than Macs because everyone felt rather sorry for poor old PC. I think it's still going in the US, though, where I've never heard underdogs or losers got much sympathy.
you're right, that campaign IS still going here - i've seen it...
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